Closed
On the twenty-fifth of October, Elon Musk made two claims on X. One. That debt markets have, in his words, "almost entirely shut off" for any company without revenue outside AI data centres. Two. That SpaceX "closed forty billion dollars of debt for GPUs." More than thirteen million views.
The claim
Elon Musk told X that SpaceX had closed $40 billion of debt for GPUs. SpaceX's own filing, the next day, says it signed a binding letter promising to enter into a lease, and that the deal is not yet closed.
The post went up at 19:11:18 UTC on 25 October 2026, a reply to @chamath. It made two claims: that debt markets had "almost entirely shut off" for any company without revenue outside AI data centres, and that SpaceX "closed $40B of debt for GPUs". In full: "As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn't have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we're investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue." Read at source on 27 October at 13:01 UTC, it had 13,623,539 views and had not been edited.
Thirty-nine minutes later, at 19:50:36 UTC, Musk replied to @SawyerMerritt that the money was mostly callable debt, for chips arriving in the first and second quarters. In full: "This is primarily callable debt for GPU purchases that will arrive in Q1 and Q2. Not a major factor this quarter."
The filing
The next day SpaceX filed its own account with the regulator. It does not say closed. It says that on 24 October SpaceX signed a binding commitment letter to enter into a master finance lease. That is a lease, not a loan: a company managed by Apollo will buy the chips and lease them to SpaceX.
The 8-K, Item 8.01, names the lessor as "an entity managed by Apollo Global Management, Inc." "The Lessor will acquire and lease to the Company certain graphics processing unit pods and related equipment." The equipment arrives in tranches, "each of which will be subject to a separate lease schedule with a term of approximately five to five and one-quarter years". Principal payments over the terms total "approximately $40 billion", plus "an amount calculated at a fixed rate per annum on the outstanding lease balance".
What is still open
The rate is not set: it will be "determined at pricing". The deal is "expected to close prior to year end". The chips arrive in the first half of 2027. And in the filing's own words, the deal may not close at all.
The filing's words: the commitment "is subject to certain specified closing conditions"; "The lease schedules are expected to commence during the first half of 2027 upon delivery of the GPUs"; and the fixed rate is set at a pricing "which will occur prior to the Company's entry into the master finance lease".
To be fair
A binding commitment is a real thing. And Musk himself added, thirty-nine minutes later, that the chips arrive in the first and second quarters. The filing says the first half of 2027.
The filing mentions no call feature. "Callable" is Musk's word.
The price of GPU debt
So are debt markets shut? Look at what the neoclouds, the companies that rent out AI chips, signed in 2026. CoreWeave paid 2.25 points over the benchmark rate in March, 4.50 in May and 5.50 in August.
Source: SEC EDGAR: CoreWeave, Inc. Forms 8-K of 31 March, 18 May, 10 August and 17 September 2026; Nebius Group N.V. Form 6-K of 22 October 2026; Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Form 8-K of 26 October 2026
The three facilities, as each 8-K states them: DDTL 4.0, signed 30 March 2026, $8.5 billion, Term SOFR plus 2.25%; DDTL 5.0, signed 15 May 2026, Term SOFR plus 4.50%; DDTL 5.5, signed 7 August 2026, Term SOFR plus 5.50%. CoreWeave's convertible notes are not on the chart, because a coupon is not a margin: "$4.2 billion aggregate principal amount of its 2.875% Convertible Senior Notes due 2033" (the 8-K of 22 September). Nor is SpaceX's lease, whose rate is not yet set.
The bridge
Eight days before Musk's post, Nebius signed a $3.5 billion loan with Citi. It is a one-year bridge, secured, and its rate steps up by 0.25 points every ninety days.
Source: SEC EDGAR: CoreWeave, Inc. Forms 8-K of 31 March, 18 May, 10 August and 17 September 2026; Nebius Group N.V. Form 6-K of 22 October 2026; Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Form 8-K of 26 October 2026
The 6-K: the Bridge Facility Agreement of 17 October 2026 with Citibank, N.A., "a senior secured term loan facility in an aggregate principal amount of $3.5 billion", at "Term SOFR plus an applicable margin commencing at 2.75% per annum", "increasing by 0.25% for each 90-day period after October 17, 2026 up to 3.50% per annum", maturing 16 October 2027. The chart sets it among the six GPU financings of 2026 by size, SpaceX's as a commitment, not a closed financing.
The voices
Nebius's chief executive, five days after the bridge was signed, at NVIDIA GTC Berlin on 22 October 2026, as spoken (Nebius's own stream, 15:25 to 15:55), said some capital sources were temporarily closed, naming asset-backed lending and the debt market. He spoke as the head of a company that had just borrowed from Citi on a one-year bridge.
“From last week, probably some of the capital sources are temporary closed, like asset back[ed] or debt market.”
Arkady Volozh, Nebius, NVIDIA GTC Berlin, 22 October 2026, as spoken · read 27 October 2026
CoreWeave's chief executive on Fox Business, posted 11 October 2026, as spoken (The Claman Countdown, 6:38 to 6:49 and 7:19 to 7:53): "the margins that we are able to make on the product we deliver are rising faster than interest rates". In the same interview he called borrowing a standing part of the plan. Two chief executives, two readings of the same market in the same month.
Committed, not closed
In these filings the market is not shut. CoreWeave paid more each time it borrowed, and Nebius's newest loan is a one-year bridge.
The forty billion is committed, not closed.
When it closes, SpaceX's next filing will say so. As of 27 October 2026 there is no SpaceX filing after the 26 October one, so at source nothing has priced or closed.
Every deal figure from the companies' own filings.
Sources
- Space Exploration Technologies Corp., Form 8-K, Item 8.01 (Other Events), filed with the SEC on 26 October 2026 (date of earliest event 24 October 2026; EDGAR, CIK 1181412, accession 0001104659-26-118614). Read at source by Token Runner on 27 October 2026: the binding commitment letter for a master finance lease with an entity managed by Apollo Global Management, Inc.; about $40 billion of aggregate principal payments over lease schedules of about five to five and one-quarter years; the fixed rate to be determined at pricing; the closing conditions; the expected closing before year end; the lease schedules expected to commence in the first half of 2027; the forward-looking statement that the transaction may not close.
- Nebius Group N.V., Form 6-K, filed 22 October 2026 (event of 17 October 2026; EDGAR, CIK 1513845): the Bridge Facility Agreement with Citibank, N.A. as mandated lead arranger and lender, a senior secured term loan facility of $3.5 billion, Term SOFR plus a margin commencing at 2.75% and increasing by 0.25% for each 90-day period up to 3.50%, maturing 16 October 2027. Read at source on 27 October 2026.
- CoreWeave, Inc., Form 8-K filed 31 March 2026 (DDTL 4.0: an $8.5 billion delayed draw term loan facility, Term SOFR plus 2.25%; MUFG Bank as administrative agent). Read at source on 27 October 2026.
- CoreWeave, Inc., Form 8-K filed 18 May 2026 (DDTL 5.0: Term SOFR plus 4.50%). Read at source on 27 October 2026.
- CoreWeave, Inc., Form 8-K filed 10 August 2026 (DDTL 5.5: Term SOFR plus 5.50%). Read at source on 27 October 2026.
- CoreWeave, Inc., Form 8-K filed 22 September 2026, Item 1.01: "completed its previously announced upsized private offering of $4.2 billion aggregate principal amount of its 2.875% Convertible Senior Notes due 2033". Read at source on 27 October 2026.
- Elon Musk on X, 25 October 2026, 19:11:18 UTC (post 2114434646914068862, a reply to @chamath) and 19:50:36 UTC (post 2114444535036321840, a reply to @SawyerMerritt). The words as posted; read at source by Token Runner on 27 October 2026 at 13:01 UTC: 13,623,539 views on the first post, 298,746 on the second; neither edited.
- Arkady Volozh, Nebius, "Nebius Live at NVIDIA GTC Berlin | Day 2", Nebius's own channel, 22 October 2026, 0:15:25 to 0:15:55, the words as spoken: "From last week, probably some of the capital sources are temporary closed, like asset back[ed] or debt market." (the audio checked against the auto-captions by Token Runner).
- Michael Intrator, CoreWeave, on Fox Business, The Claman Countdown, posted 11 October 2026, 6:38 to 6:49 and 7:19 to 7:53, the words as spoken: "the margins that we are able to make on the product we deliver are rising faster than interest rates" and "Borrowing will be and will continue to be a part of our financial plan."
- Token Runner's own table of the six GPU financings of 2026 (by borrower, facility, size, margin and rate, each row from the filing named in it), as a data file to download (CC BY 4.0).