SPRAWL // 04 / POLITICS

POLITICS

Legislation, export controls, procurement, lobbying spend

DATA • CONVERSATIONS • SIGNALS • HUMANS • VIDEOS

12export-control rules published in 2026to 24 September 2026

Politics: a painting from the house’s oil series

01 /Interlinked9pieces, each an article and a film 02 /Data2charts, each live from a table we hold 03 /Conversations5posts this period and quoted 04 /Signals66sources our pieces cite 05 /Humans39people on the Replicants list 06 /Videos10videos from outside, each played here

Interlinked

Politics

Data

OPEN THE INSTRUMENT →

Open Politics in Esper →

The rows behind this figure: export-control rules and proposed rules published in 2026, each document once

The table is read from the same data file as the chart when this section is opened.

All Interlinked: Politics

Politics

Energy interlinked

Technology interlinked

Conversations

The biggest conversational points among Politics’s tracked accounts and searches since 2026-10-25: 98 posts read, 9 kept, 83 dropped as not about AI, 4 dropped as only a link, 1 dropped as a promotion, 1 dropped as a reply to a reply. The posts are their authors’ own words; the rule under each pick says why it stands here.

1. policy

2 accounts · 2 posts · engagement 62 · the point they share: a lane term several carry

Adam Thierer@AdamThiererOPEN THE POST ON X →

2026-10-31 · 00:29 JST

excited to be part of @TheFIREorg's big first-ever "Soapbox" conference in Philadelphia next week. All the cool kids will be there celebrating free speech.

I'll be moderating a panel on AI policy & free speech issues. Can't wait! x.com/NicoPerrino/st…

AS POSTED ON X

Why this post

the most engaged post of @AdamThierer in this conversation (28 likes, 3 reposts, 0 quotes, 1 replies as read); the point: a lane term several carry (policy); from the lane

Council on Foreign Relations@CFR_orgOPEN THE POST ON X →

2026-10-31 · 05:10 JST

On November 3, voters in the United States head to the polls to cast their ballots in the midterm elections.

Economic worries typically dominate midterm elections, and 2026 is no different. The affordability question, which directly ties to the economy and direction of the country, appears to be the core issue driving voter sentiment.

What is notable this year is how 4 foreign policy issues have affected those economic issues. CFR experts break down how the Iran war, U.S. trade policy, AI, and immigration could be shaping voters’ perceptions of the economy and the United States’ role in the world.

AS POSTED ON X

Why this post

the most engaged post of @CFR_org in this conversation (11 likes, 4 reposts, 0 quotes, 1 replies as read); the point: a lane term several carry (policy); from the lane

The posts our Politics pieces quoted

Not a feed. Each with the piece that used it.

Miles Brundage@Miles_BrundageOPEN THE POST ON X →

2026-10-01 · 20:27 JST

To clarify, if Oracle were actually rigorously monitoring how it was used + prepared to intervene I’d feel differently (likewise for selling chips in some cases, though the bar is higher in the latter case for effectiveness of monitoring).

I just have no reason to think that’s the situation given the general state of export control policy (rampant smuggling tolerated for years, huge loopholes lasting years, policy turning on a dime after a meeting btwn Trump and Jensen, etc) though hopefully I’m missing something here!

AS POSTED ON X

Quoted in The Export-Control Clock

Epoch AI@EpochAIResearchOPEN THE POST ON X →

2026-09-18 · 04:41 JST

This flow began a few months after the US banned exports of Nvidia’s A800/H800 GPUs to China (October 2023) and then collapsed within weeks of Malaysia requiring a permit to export or transship high-performance AI chips (July 2025).

AS POSTED ON X

Quoted in The Export-Control Clock

BISgov@BISgovOPEN THE POST ON X →

2025-09-30 · 23:47 JST

“For too long, loopholes have enabled exports that undermine American national security and foreign policy interests. Under this Administration, BIS is closing the loopholes and ensuring that export controls work as intended." - Under Secretary Jeffrey I. Kessler https://t.co/XsoEj4KUBu

AS POSTED ON X

Quoted in The Export-Control Clock

Signals

The filings, reports and news stories behind the Politics pieces, as each piece cites them. A document two pieces cite shows twice.

The state layoff notice listscited in The law catches up, slowly
Connecticut Public Act 26-15 the source ↗cited in The law catches up, slowly
New York's WARN data exportcited in The law catches up, slowly
Hunton's alert of 18 May 2026 the source ↗cited in The law catches up, slowly
Forbes, 17 August 2026cited in The law catches up, slowly
The New York Senate's page for A9581-B, read 30 Octobercited in The law catches up, slowly
Congress.gov for S.3108cited in The law catches up, slowly
The releases of Senators Hawley, Warner and Banks and Representative Horsford the source ↗cited in The law catches up, slowly
Roll Call, 23 October 2026 the source ↗cited in The law catches up, slowly
The Washington Post via PBS, 26 August 2026cited in The law catches up, slowly
The EU AI Act on EUR-Lex the source ↗cited in The law catches up, slowly
Gibson Dunn's alert the source ↗cited in The law catches up, slowly
Littlercited in The law catches up, slowly
The SEC's EDGAR recordscited in The law catches up, slowly
OMB Historical Table 2.2cited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
CRS IF13256cited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
The 2026 Medicare Trustees Reportcited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
FRED series PRS85006173 and A4002E1A156NBEAcited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
The Yale Budget Lab, updated 9 October 2026cited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
The University of Nebraska-Lincoln, December 2025, and AP for Lexingtoncited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
The St. Louis Fed, 23 March 2026 the source ↗cited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
The Washington Center for Equitable Growth, 23 October 2026 the source ↗cited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
The Commonwealth Fund and the Urban Institute the source ↗cited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
Vanguard via Axios, 4 March 2026 the source ↗cited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
OpenResearch, NBER w32719cited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
Banerjee et al. 2023cited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
The Welsh Government's evaluationcited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
Hoynes and Rothstein, NBER w25538cited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
Quartz and Fortune for Gates the source ↗cited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
The text of H.R. 10044cited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
Arqus Discussion Paper 308cited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
The FT via a syndicated copy for Hintoncited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
Roll Call, 29 June 2026, for Rounds the source ↗cited in Who pays for government when wages shrink
MOFCOM and MOST, Announcement 2026 No. 48 (商务部科技部公告2026年第48号), 16 October 2026, with Annex 1, the draft list: 40 technologies in AI, biomedicine and photovoltaics; comments 16 October to 15 November 2026; registration before export from the day of publication. the source ↗cited in Beijing's Turn
The MOFCOM spokesperson's Q&A, 16 October 2026: 14 prohibited and 26 restricted; the API, app, web and SaaS uses "不属于大模型技术出口管理范围"; "不针对任何特定国家、地区或实体"; "绝大部分人工智能技术仍可以自由出口". the source ↗cited in Beijing's Turn
MiniMax, announcement to the Hong Kong stock exchange, 23 October 2026: registration completed under Announcement No. 48. the source ↗cited in Beijing's Turn
US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security, interim final rule on advanced computing and semiconductor items, 87 FR 62186, published 13 October 2022, effective 7 October 2022. the source ↗cited in Beijing's Turn
Reuters, 16 October 2026, 'Beijing seeks tighter grip on AI exports amid US rivalry', as carried by StreetInsider. the source ↗cited in Beijing's Turn
Federal Register, rules of the Bureau of Industry and Security, 9 October 2026 data collectioncited in The Export-Control Clock
Federal Register, 87 FR 62186, the chip rule of October 2022cited in The Export-Control Clock
Federal Register, 88 FR 73458, the chip rule of October 2023cited in The Export-Control Clock
Federal Register, 90 FR 4544, the Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion, January 2025cited in The Export-Control Clock
Federal Register, 91 FR 1684, the H200 licence review rule, January 2026cited in The Export-Control Clock
Federal Register, 91 FR 43034, the rule of July 2026cited in The Export-Control Clock
Federal Register, 90 FR 47201 and 90 FR 50857, the affiliates rule of September 2025 and its suspensioncited in The Export-Control Clock
Bureau of Industry and Security, press release on the rescission of the AI diffusion rule, 13 May 2025cited in The Export-Control Clock
Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Trump Administration Ratchets Up Export Control Penalties", analysis by Kevin Kurland and Kate Koren, 24 September 2026 the source ↗cited in The Export-Control Clock
Nvidia, Form 8-K reports of 26 August 2022, 17 October 2023, 23 October 2023, 13 January 2025 and 9 April 2025cited in The Export-Control Clock
Nvidia, Form 10-Q for the quarters ended 27 April 2025, 27 July 2025 and 26 October 2025cited in The Export-Control Clock
Nvidia, Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 25 January 2026, filed 25 February 2026cited in The Export-Control Clock
Nvidia, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 July 2026, filed 26 August 2026cited in The Export-Control Clock
Epoch AI, AI chip sales timelines by chip and chip types, 9 October 2026 data collectioncited in The Export-Control Clock
X posts: Miles Brundage, 1 October 2026; Epoch AI, 17 September 2026; the Bureau of Industry and Security, 30 September 2025 and 12 February 2026cited in The Export-Control Clock
CNBC, "Nvidia says it will record $5.5 billion charge tied to H20 processors exported to China", Kif Leswing and Jordan Novet, 15 April 2025 the source ↗cited in The Export-Control Clock
TechCrunch, "Trump administration officially rescinds Biden's AI diffusion rules", Rebecca Szkutak, 13 May 2025 the source ↗cited in The Export-Control Clock
CNBC (Emily Wilkins), 'AI industry super PAC raises $125 million in 2025', 30 January 2026 the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
U.S. Federal Election Commission, committee C00916114, 'LEADING THE FUTURE' (a super PAC), its reports on Form 3X: the year-end report for 2025 and the April and July quarterly reports for 2026, read through the Commission's public data service on 2 October 2026cited in The Preemption Play
U.S. Senate, roll call vote 363, 119th Congress, 1st session, 1 July 2025, 4:08 AM: on the Blackburn amendment, S.Amdt. 2814 to S.Amdt. 2360 to H.R. 1 the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
Colorado Attorney General, 'Colorado Automated Decision-Making Technology & Chatbot Safety Rulemaking' the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
The White House, Executive Order 14365, 'Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence', 11 December 2025 the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
California Legislature, SB 1047 (Wiener), bill status the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
California Legislature, SB 53 (Wiener), 'Artificial intelligence models: large developers', Chapter 138, bill text as chaptered the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
Texas Legislature Online, HB 149, 89th Regular Session, bill history the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
Colorado General Assembly, SB24-205, 'Consumer Protections for Artificial Intelligence', bill summary as enacted the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
Colorado General Assembly, SB25B-004, 'Increase Transparency for Algorithmic Systems', bill summary as enacted the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play
TechCrunch (Rebecca Bellan), 'US Senate removes controversial AI moratorium from budget bill', 1 July 2025 the source ↗cited in The Preemption Play