Who Gets Paid
Everyone agrees the AI boom is enormous. The question is who it is paying.
Who is paid
The AI build-out is the biggest spending spree on record, and today the profit and the bill sit in different places. TSMC, which makes the chips, banked a record $46.72 billion of revenue last quarter and kept 51.1 cents of each dollar as profit. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle put $464.5 billion into capital spending in their latest years.
Everyone agrees the AI boom is enormous. The question is who it is paying. We followed the money from the forecast to the factory to the companies writing the checks, in each one's own published figures.
About $2.7 trillion
Gartner, the research firm, says the world will spend about $2.7 trillion on AI this year, up almost 50 per cent. More than half of it goes on infrastructure: servers, chips and data centres.
Gartner's release of 16 September 2026 forecasts worldwide AI spending of $2,670,460 million in 2026, up 49.5% from $1,786,671 million in 2025, and $3,637,292 million in 2027.
Source: Gartner, press release of 16 September 2026 (Table 1); TSMC, quarterly earnings releases of 16 October 2025, 15 January, 16 April, 16 July and 15 October 2026, and the 3Q26 Quarterly Management Report
Its Table 1 puts AI infrastructure at $1,484,397 million of the 2026 total, about $1.48 trillion and about 56% by our division, up from $981,920 million in 2025. It names infrastructure the largest market in every year. All three years' figures are forecasts.
The largest project, in a trough
Gartner's own analyst calls it the largest infrastructure project humanity has ever undertaken. The release prints "even" where it means "ever"; the film says "ever".
And in the very same release, Gartner says generative AI is, in its words, firmly in the Trough of Disillusionment. Enterprises, it says, are using simpler AI features built into the software they already buy.
The biggest build in history, for a technology in a trough.
The one being paid
Follow the money to the factory. TSMC makes the chips. In the third quarter of 2026 it took in $46.72 billion, a record, up 41.2% in a year.
The five quarters from the third of 2025 brought 33.10, 33.73, 35.90, 40.20 and 46.72 billion dollars. Against the guidance TSMC gave the quarter before, of 31.8 to 33.0, 32.2 to 33.4, 34.6 to 35.8, 39.0 to 40.2 and 44.6 to 45.8, four came in above the top of the range and one, the second quarter of 2026, at it.
Source: Gartner, press release of 16 September 2026 (Table 1); TSMC, quarterly earnings releases of 16 October 2025, 15 January, 16 April, 16 July and 15 October 2026, and the 3Q26 Quarterly Management Report
For the fourth quarter TSMC expects 52.3 to 54.3 billion dollars. Its 2026 capital budget is "between US$52 billion and US$56 billion". It spent 13.84 billion dollars in the third quarter, 40.64 billion by the end of September.
So the factory is spending heavily too. The difference is that its customers are already paying it for what it makes.
More than half
More than half of every dollar TSMC took in came out the other side as profit.
Its net profit margin over the five quarters was 45.7%, 48.3%, 50.5%, 55.6% and 51.1%. In the third quarter of 2026 the gross margin was 66.4% and the operating margin 58.7%.
The reason
The reason is high-performance computing: the AI chips. It was 68% of TSMC's revenue in the third quarter of 2026, up from 57% a year earlier.
Source: Gartner, press release of 16 September 2026 (Table 1); TSMC, quarterly earnings releases of 16 October 2025, 15 January, 16 April, 16 July and 15 October 2026, and the 3Q26 Quarterly Management Report
TSMC's quarterly report gives net revenue by platform: High Performance Computing 68%, Smartphone 21%, Internet of Things 4%, Automotive 4%, Digital Consumer Electronics 1%, Others 2%. A year earlier the shares were 57%, 30%, 5%, 5%, 1% and 2%. In the second quarter of 2026, high-performance computing was already 66% and smartphones 22%.
Seventy-nine per cent of wafer revenue came from 7-nanometre and smaller nodes, and North America was 79% of revenue.
The ones paying
Now look at who is writing the checks. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Oracle spent $464.5 billion of capital in their latest years.
From each company's own filings, as the Securities and Exchange Commission's company data hold them: payments for property and equipment of $131.8 billion at Amazon in 2025, where the line covers all productive assets; $115.9 billion at Microsoft in the year to June 2026; $91.4 billion at Alphabet in 2025; $69.7 billion at Meta in 2025; and $55.7 billion at Oracle in the year to May 2026. The total is our addition of five fiscal years that end on different days.
Source: SEC filings: each company's annual 10-K, from SEC's XBRL company facts
Divided by each company's revenue, Microsoft put 35 cents of every dollar back into the build (115.9 of 331.8), Meta 35 (69.7 of 201.0), Oracle 83 (55.7 of 67.4), Alphabet 23 (91.4 of 402.8) and Amazon 18 (131.8 of 716.9).
Source: SEC filings: each company's annual 10-K, from SEC's XBRL company facts
Two years earlier the same ratios were Microsoft 13, Meta 20, Oracle 13, Alphabet 10 and Amazon 9. Four of the five at least doubled their share in two years, Meta's rose by three quarters, and Oracle's rose more than sixfold, our reading of those ratios.
To be fair
That spending is everything the five build, not AI alone. Gartner's numbers are forecasts. And spending now can pay off later.
The capital spending is each company's whole line for property and equipment: offices, warehouses, networks and data centres together. Gartner's 2026 and 2027 figures are forecasts from one release. Nothing here says who will or will not be paid back.
Paid and paying
Today the bill and the profit sit in different places.
The chip maker is paid, now: 51.1 cents of each dollar as profit. The builders are paying, now: $464.5 billion. And the firm that counts the spending says the payoff is in a trough.
What to watch: TSMC's fourth quarter against its own range of 52.3 to 54.3 billion dollars, the five builders' next capital lines, and whether Gartner moves generative AI out of the trough.
Every figure from Gartner, TSMC, and the companies' own filings.
Sources
- Gartner, press release, "Gartner Forecasts Worldwide AI Spending to Grow 49.5% in 2026", Stamford, 16 September 2026: "Worldwide spending on AI is forecast to total $2.7 trillion in 2026, a 49.5% increase year-over-year"; John-David Lovelock, Distinguished VP Analyst: "The buildout of AI data center capacity is the largest infrastructure project humanity has even undertaken." (as printed); "With GenAI firmly in the Trough of Disillusionment in 2026, enterprises are using these simpler embedded AI features from their incumbent software providers"; Table 1, Worldwide AI Spending by Market, 2025-2027: AI Infrastructure 981,920 / 1,484,397 / 1,977,685 million dollars of totals 1,786,671 / 2,670,460 / 3,637,292. Read at source by Desktop in a browser, 24 October 2026.
- TSMC, "TSMC Reports Third Quarter EPS of NT$29.43", 15 October 2026 (also filed as Form 6-K): "In US dollars, third quarter revenue was $46.72 billion, which increased 41.2% year-over-year and increased 16.2% from the previous quarter."; "Gross margin for the quarter was 66.4%, operating margin was 58.7%, and net profit margin was 51.1%."; fourth-quarter guidance US$52.3 to 54.3 billion.
- TSMC, the quarterly earnings releases of 17 July 2025, 16 October 2025, 15 January 2026, 16 April 2026 and 16 July 2026: revenue in US dollars of 33.10, 33.73, 35.90 and 40.20 billion for the quarters from the third of 2025 to the second of 2026, and each quarter's guidance given the quarter before: 31.8 to 33.0; 32.2 to 33.4; 34.6 to 35.8; 39.0 to 40.2; 44.6 to 45.8 billion dollars; net profit margins 45.7%, 48.3%, 50.5%, 55.6%; the 2026 capital budget "between US$52 billion and US$56 billion".
- TSMC, Quarterly Management Report, 3Q26, 15 October 2026, Net Revenue by Platform: High Performance Computing 68% of net revenue (66% in 2Q26, 57% in 3Q25); Smartphone 21% (22%, 30%); IoT 4%, Automotive 4%, DCE 1%, Others 2%; "Sequentially, revenue from HPC, Smartphone, IoT, and Automotive increased 22%, 10%, 5%, and 23% respectively."; capital expenditures US$13.84 billion in the quarter, US$40.64 billion in the year to date.
- Token Runner's own table of the companies' filings, built from the SEC's company facts (the companies' own filings): payments for property and equipment and revenue by fiscal year. Microsoft, the year to 30 June 2026: 115.9 of 331.8 billion dollars; Alphabet 2025: 91.4 of 402.8; Amazon 2025: 131.8 of 716.9 (the tag PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets); Meta 2025: 69.7 of 201.0; Oracle, the year to 31 May 2026: 55.7 of 67.4. The five latest fiscal years add to 464.5 billion dollars of capital spending: our addition. Read 19 October 2026.